Peace at Last?
What should we expect from the ceasefire in Gaza?
The Middle East is nothing if not complex, so it is certainly possible that there are factors at play of which I am unaware. But given what I do know about Hamas and the Palestinians, I think the chances of the much-trumpeted “peace deal” actually leading to any kind of lasting peace are close to zero.
Don’t get me wrong — I’m thrilled that the remaining living hostages have now been released. The nightmare that they and their families have gone through is almost unimaginable. But the freedom of those 20 hostages comes at the price of releasing nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners. Somewhere around 1,700 of them were “prisoners of war” who had not been convicted of any crime. If the war is over, then perhaps it makes sense to release them. But 250 Palestinian criminals were also released. In many cases, they were people who had been found guilty of deadly attacks on Israel. In what world is giving freedom to 250 violent criminals a good deal? Our world, unfortunately. Even some of Trump’s most vehement critics are rushing to praise him for this deal.
On an emotional level, I understand the widespread celebration in Israel at the release of the hostages and cessation of active hostilities. But that’s the problem — this is being looked at only on an emotional level. Very few are looking at it rationally and thinking about what happens in the long (or even medium) run.
The fact is, Hamas has not been defeated. I don’t think they got what they wanted out of the October 7th attacks, but they did manage (bizarrely) to gain the sympathy of much of the world. Does anyone imagine that they have learned their lesson and plan to live peacefully beside Israel? I don’t think anyone could say that with a straight face. So given that their ideology and goals remain unchanged, future violence is almost guaranteed. I hope I’m wrong, but the reality is that Hamas has not renounced its violent ways. Already, in the few days since the ceasefire deal was signed, Hamas militias have executed at least 33 people suspected of “collaborating” with Israel. Because the violence is not aimed (yet) at Israelis, it has mostly been ignored.
There are cynics who think that no one can do anything to alter the dynamic between Israel and the Palestinians, that the region is doomed to forever be violent, so we should just be thankful for the short respites provided by deals like this. And indeed, if you only ever think about issues in pragmatic, short-range terms, then you are correct. Nothing will ever be solved.
But it is possible, if not popular, to actually think long-range and in terms of principles. While I’m sure many mistakes were made, that is how the Western Allies approached the ending of World War II. They demanded unconditional surrender, knowing that anything less might allow the vestiges of their enemies’ war-mongering philosophy to again take root. The Allies thoroughly crushed them, and then they set about rebuilding not just the physical infrastructure of their defeated foes, but the idealogical infrastructure. They occupied (West) Germany and Japan, and forced them to set up sophisticated constitutional democracies. In Germany, there was “Denazification,” and in Japan, there was a campaign of demilitarization and democratization. And it worked. Within a short period of time, these countries were productive and peaceful nations.
While obviously you can’t just cut-and-paste that solution into the Middle East, the only hope for lasting peace is for the anti-civilization ideology of Hamas (and unfortunately, many if not most Palestinians) to be utterly destroyed. After October 7th, Israel should have occupied Gaza and completely wiped out Hamas. They should have caved in their tunnels and dismantled their terrorist infrastructure. They should have tried to rescue as many of the hostages as possible, of course, but should NOT have held back as they did out of fear.
Once Hamas has been wiped from the face of the earth, I am less sure how best to proceed. Maybe Gaza should then be annexed into Israel, or maybe it should remain as a separate but occupied territory. Maybe they could even work towards nationhood, as long as a careful program of reeducation guides them towards being a peaceful, rights-respecting country (admittedly, that’s a stretch). But whatever comes next, I think it’s vitally important that Israel find a way for Palestinians to stop being perpetual refugees. I don’t see how there can be lasting peace in the region as long as they are.
I am certainly not an expert on the Middle East, and I look forward to people who know more than I do weighing in on viable options. But I do know that the current “peace deal” does little to address the underlying issues that made October 7th possible — and therefore makes the next October 7th all but inevitable.
Actual solutions will need to be bold, principled, and long-range. Not surprisingly, the Trump deal is none of these things.
This is just the latest capitulation of many for at least the 46 years since the mullahs took Iran (although such appeasement of this problem goes back many, many years earlier). Monsters who fanatically believe a philosophy of death can only ever be defeated. They can’t be appeased, and they can’t be negotiated with. They must be annihilated, or as was the case with a similar ideology in Japan in WWII, made aware their continued belligerent philosophy WOULD result in their destruction. For the very best description of why this is so, I always recommend John David Lewis’ “Nothing Less than Victory”. In this book, he goes back in history to demonstrate why only this policy ever results in real positive change for the peace of the world.
i give it one month. This is a “positive” for Trump as a distraction for all the destruction he is causing at home. “Maybe he really knows how to run things, if only we would just give him free reigns to do it.”