Give War a Chance

When I began writing this piece, Trump was still considering whether the US should bomb Iran. While none of my friends are fans of the Iranian regime, I was a bit surprised to find there was so much ambivalence and skepticism about what Israel was doing. The objections centered on two main issues. First, that for going on twenty years, Israel and the U.S. have claimed that Iran is “a few months away” from having nuclear weapons. The implication was that the threat is not real (or not actually imminent). The second objection was along the lines that Trump and Netanyahu are not the men who should conduct such a war. They are terrible leaders, with suspect motivations, and likely to just make everything worse.

Now that Trump has, surprisingly, actually made a decision and dropped bombs on Iran’s nuclear sites, how should we feel about this war? With regards to the first objection, you have to keep in mind that the U.S. and Israel have been actively taking steps during that entire period to prevent Iran’s nuclear ambitions from moving forward. So this is not merely a case of politicians crying wolf. That said, it is certainly possible that we have been misled as to how close the Iranians are to actually creating weapons. But the fact remains that they are enriching uranium — and it is almost certainly with the goal of making bombs. Given their stated intentions and long history of supporting terrorism, it is absolutely legitimate to prevent this from happening, even if an actual bomb is years away. What is the point of waiting? Is it really wise to play geopolitical Russian roulette and hope that we manage to intervene before it’s too late? You can quibble about the timing of the attacks, and perhaps it is “convenient” that this is happening now in order to distract from other issues, but the fact remains that Iran IS a threat. They have been since 1979 and should have been dealt with decades ago. If this latest war does finally lead to Iran’s defeat, and perhaps even regime change, I’m not willing to condemn it based on the timing. Unfortunately, that’s sometimes how these things work and I say, better late than never.

The second objection is I think the stronger one. Trump has a proven track record of wildly inconsistent (and often bad) foreign policy. I wouldn’t trust him to run a neighborhood lemonade stand, much less a military operation. But he’s not running it — Israel is. And while Netanyahu has been a terrible leader in many ways, unlike Trump he is not stupid. And his military has repeatedly demonstrated that it is highly competent.

The reality is that countries — and militaries — are always led by flawed men. While Trump and Netanyahu are more flawed that most, they are the leaders we are stuck with. To NOT prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons because we lack good leaders could end up being a very costly mistake.

Given how bad our leaders are, though, it is completely legitimate to worry. Am I convinced that Trump has thought through the ramifications of these attacks? No. Of course not. Could things escalate? While I think talk of World War III is overblown, there is some real risk here. As of this morning, Iran is threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz (which would lead to major disruptions in the world’s supply of oil), and Yemen has joined the war (on the side of Iran, of course). While I think Iran’s threats of retaliation are mostly bluster, there is real risk for our troops in the region — and of course, for Israel most of all.

But a lot of the worry, especially among the more isolationist wing of the MAGA movement, is that the US could get mired in another situation like Iraq or Afghanistan. While anything is possible with a leader as irrational as Trump, I think this is unlikely. I don’t think there is any need for “boots on the ground” in Iran, and I think the smarter people around Trump must know this. Yes, regime change (if it comes to that, which I hope it will) can be messy, but it doesn’t have to be our mess. There is a substantial portion of the Iranian population that is yearning for freedom. Encourage them as much as possible — and then leave them to sort out how they want to govern themselves. There may be chaos for a while; that isn’t necessarily bad for us or for Israel, once Iran no longer has the military capability to be a threat. A stable Islamic dictatorship, which is what they’ve had for 45 years now, is already a worst-case scenario. Whatever emerges from a regime change is unlikely to be worse and stands a very good chance of being better. It is a mistake to think that stability in and of itself is a value. The stability of oppression is not something worth maintaining.

So, by all means, let’s be vigilant about NOT committing American ground troops to this operation. Let’s continue to criticize Trump when he’s acting outside his constitutional role (yes, this strike should have been authorized by Congress). But let’s also recognize that Israel had every right to defend itself, and that a defeated Iran is good not just for them, but for all of Western civilization. The Iranian regime has been a committed foe of the West and an active sponsor of terrorism. For that reason, I think dropping bombs on their nuclear facilities was legitimate. But I also think that this is all we need to do or should do. Let Israel handle the rest. Frankly, they’ll be better at it, and then there is little chance of the US getting mired in another endless war. Of course, Trump will claim the victory as his, despite the fact that it belongs almost entirely to Israel. But that’s a small price to pay if Iran is finally eliminated as a threat.